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Statistical literacy

Most misleading statistics are not fabricated. They are real figures read the wrong way — an average standing in for a distribution, a rise measured from a low point, a correlation quietly promoted to a cause.

This topic covers the small set of concepts that catch most of those errors. None of them require maths beyond arithmetic, and each one is the difference between a number that informs you and a number that flatters whoever published it.

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Every clip here states its source and the period it covers, and carries the underlying numbers on its page as a table you can copy.

In this topic

What it covers

  1. 1Why the mean and the median disagree, and which one a skewed distribution demands
  2. 2What a base rate is, and why ignoring it makes accurate tests produce mostly false positives
  3. 3Simpson's paradox: how a trend can reverse the moment you split the data
  4. 4Regression to the mean, and why the best performers almost always do worse next year
  5. 5Correlation, causation, and the third variable that usually explains both

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